There still is some talent, though, and quite a lot to rely on for 2023, which really makes this a team that should not fall apart over the course of the season. Winning at the major league level typically means the farm takes hit after hit. The Blue Jays placed 17th in Keith Law’s recent organizational rankings, as they’ve depleted a lot of their system through trades and promotions the last couple of years. At least with two decent options, there’s insurance in case someone finds themselves in the midst of a disaster season. There’s nothing really wrong with the Merrifield-Espinal plan (other than just not handing Espinal the position), but it’s a soft spot in a lineup that doesn’t have any others. Whit Merrifield now has over 1,200 PAs of being just average, and while the expectation is that the Jays will pivot to Santiago Espinal before long, the latter’s defense-first profile limits his ceiling. It’s also worth noting that second base sticks out like a sore thumb in this lineup. If they can weather the storm for a few months, the Front Office could bring in reinforcements as needed. Good news for Toronto is the bullpen is of the easiest parts of the team to upgrade mid-season as there’s usually plenty of options. But like with Romano, there’s some expected regression for some of his more fortunate outcomes from last season, and if both guys experience falls back to earth, things could get even worse. Swanson was tremendous with Seattle last season, finishing with a 1.68 ERA in 53 innings pitched. Some regression is expected and if it comes, the back end of that bullpen could get dicey. He lived off some fortunate batted ball luck and some really fortunate fly ball-to-home-run luck. Romano, working as a closer, had a 2.11 ERA last season, but a 3.31 圎RA and 3.44 xFIP. Toronto should possess a strong rotation and their position player group is fantastic, so the bullpen is where this team could improve the most. The bullpen seems like the annual problem for Canada’s team. The Jays also have a top-three projection at first base (Guerrero), and are top 10 everywhere except at second base. In particular, Kirk gives the Blue Jays the best catcher projection in MLB, and boosts their DH projection a ton as well, up to third. Their 2023 fortunes will rest mostly with this group. Add in Merrifield and Kiermaier at the bottom of the order, and this lineup looks crazy good.Īdd to the hitting that most of these guys can play at least passable defense, and in some cases better than that, and it’s not hard to figure out why Fangraphs ranks the Blue Jays position players as the top group in all of baseball. Kirk, Varsho, and Matt Chapman can all hit, and Brandon Belt should still have something left in the tank batting 7th. A top three of Springer, Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero is nasty and it just keeps going after that. Toronto is going to make its hay in 2023 through its impressive lineup. The Jays still don’t look like favorites in the AL East, but they’re not far off in what should be a melee that goes down to the wire. The balanced schedule will help these teams out tremendously as they can now beat up on someone other than each other. The caveat for AL East teams, of course, is that their division is a gauntlet, with the worst team of the five finishing with 78 wins last year. (One Fangraphs model also has them finishing at 88-74.) Driven by an insanely talented position player group, probably the best one in baseball, it would be a surprise to everyone if Toronto wasn’t participating in the 2023 post-season. FanGraphs sees a 89-73 team, PECOTA sees a 90-72 team, and ZiPS is the most pessimistic of the group, projecting them at 88-74. Most of the projection systems view Toronto in more or less the same light.
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